Tuesday, February 28, 2006

The Axis of Prosperity

There is a new triangle of economic power being made final.  The Axis of Prosperity composed of India, China, and the United States, will shape the rest of the 21st century both economically and politically.  It is the opportunity of a lifetime and I’m afraid that Europe is going to be left out to a large degree.  One of the positive attributes of the United States is its determination to succeed and survive; our left wing politicians notwithstanding.  Bush’s trip to India is simply highlighting the situation.

Some may not remember but during the 20th century India and China fought two border wars.  Now they are in competition to become the outsource platform for the production of products formerly designed and built in the United States.  This economic shift has been going in fits and starts for several years and is now about to really take off.  Please note that neither country has a majority Muslim population.  Both countries do have large mainly poor populations that are ready to be integrated into the world economy envisioned by One Worlders.  This in itself is not bad rather it is a complication, and should provide full employment for protesters for years to come.

President Bush is being lambasted by Indian Muslims, on the orders of their leaders no doubt, but they do so at the risk of their lives.  It is well known that Hindus and Muslims do not get along and during their frequent massacres the Muslims usually come out on the wrong end of the body count.  That is why we have Pakistan.  India, with the earth’s second largest population, is also the world’s largest democracy.  They do a remarkable job of maintaining the appearance of democracy and encourage entrepreneurship among the appropriate caste members.  This is the fly in the Indian ointment.  Until nations can overcome their ancient cultural mores success will continue to be somewhat elusive.

China on the other hand has the world’s largest population and has it almost under control. I don’t think it’s much of a risky prediction to say that in 50 years both China and India will be unrecognizable in their current form.  There is no way to centrally control 2 billion people from the top down.  This is already evident in the fraying of Chinese society; rampant corruption at local levels of government, increasing instances of demonstrations; usually suppressed by violent police action, and a general discontent about the wealth generation being closely held.

Should the United States be successful in managing its relationship with these two giants and successfully help them manage the transition to come, then the world will be a much better place.  Unfortunately there are still the Arabs and Iran to be dealt with in the short term.

My prediction: look for fires in Iran and bombers returning to US bases.

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