Thursday, November 02, 2006

The Return of Harry Truman

Will 2006 be a Harry Truman year? Many of you might remember that Thomas Dewey was not predicted to defeat Harry Truman in the 1948 election; some newspapers actually printed the result that “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Of course that was incorrect but is it possible that once again the pundits and pollsters are wrong and that the Republicans can pull out an off year victory?

It is of course possible but what would a “victory” entail. Based on current thinking and poll results simply breaking even might constitute a win. Certainly retention of control of either houses of Congress would disappoint every one on the left and in the media. How likely is this to happen?

Considering the recent gaffe by John Kerry and its potential to get out the conservative base and the possibility of Michael Steele’s victory in Maryland there are certainly indications of life in the Grand Old Party. America does not want another Vietnam-style defeat on its record and even a pull out can not really be considered as such. Nonetheless the war is undoubtedly the single factor that could tip the balance to the Democrats. All the points raised by the Democrats are merely the same so called issues they raise every day in hopes that like a broken clock they will be correct at least twice a day.

The stock market is up and many shareholders are now worker bees with 401(k) plans whose value depends on the stock market. Auto sales have begun trending up with the decline in petrol prices. The real estate and housing market are in decline but as this is a lagging indicator the problem is probably not as great as it seems. The cable news outlets have made the hysterical broadcast of everything seem more important than it really is. No one has a chance to take a breath and evaluate their situation with relation to events as they might see them.

Should the electorate actually stop and take stock of the situation prior to the election then the Republicans will pull off quite a surprise. However should the voters decide that the fear mongers are correct it is likely that election predictions of a Democrat victory will come true.

Some think this is a good thing; hoping the Democrats will do something stupid and lose the 2008 ballot. This is naive and quite dangerous thinking.

No comments: